| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6691 |
| DP6691 Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity | |
| Antonio Ciccone; Markus Brückner | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-02-07 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We provide empirical evidence on the effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We make a distinction between "surprise" and "anticipated" tax shocks. Surprise tax cuts give rise to a large boom in the economy. Anticipated tax liability tax cuts are instead associated with a contraction in output, investment and hours worked prior to their implementation. After their implementation, anticipated tax liability cuts lead to an economic expansion. We build a DSGE model with changes in tax rates that may be anticipated or not, estimate key parameters using a simulation estimator and show that it can account for the main features of the data. We argue that tax shocks are empirically important for U.S. business cycles and that the Reagan tax cut, which was largely anticipated, was a main factor behind the early 1980?s recession. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Anticipation effects Fiscal policy Structural estimation Tax liabilities |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6691 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535528 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Antonio Ciccone,Markus Brückner. DP6691 Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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