| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6707 |
| DP6707 Factor-augmented Error Correction Models | |
| Anindya Banerjee; Massimiliano Marcellino | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-02-15 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change. We examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980-2004 period in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries. We find that a 25% drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points. A 5% fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by around 7 percentage points. We also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Democratization Transitory economic shocks |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6707 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535543 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Anindya Banerjee,Massimiliano Marcellino. DP6707 Factor-augmented Error Correction Models. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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