| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6708 |
| DP6708 Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP | |
| Christian Schumacher; Massimiliano Marcellino | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-02-15 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We explore how fiscal policies in the OECD have responded to unexpected information about the economy during the period 1995-2006. In particular, we first estimate standard fiscal rules using ex-ante data (i.e. forecasts). We then estimate how fiscal policy reacts to new information, especially on the business cycle. In this second step, we use various approaches in dealing with potential endogeneity and changes in data construction methodology after the ex ante data were released. All variants lead to similar results. There are marked differences between ex-ante behaviour and responses to new information, as well as between fiscal policy of the EU countries and the other OECD countries. In particular, the EU countries react in a pro-cyclical way to unexpected changes in the output gap, while the responses of the other OECD countries are a-cyclical. However, ex ante fiscal policy is a-cyclical for the EU countries and counter-cyclical for the other countries. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Cyclicality Eu First-release data Fiscal policy Oecd Real-time data |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6708 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535544 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christian Schumacher,Massimiliano Marcellino. DP6708 Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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