G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP6718
DP6718 Self-fulfilling and Self-enforcing Debt Crises
Daniel Cohen; Sébastien Villemot
发表日期2008-02-22
出版年2008
语种英语
摘要This paper compares different ways to estimate the current state of the economy using factor models that can handle unbalanced datasets. Due to the different release lags of business cycle indicators, data unbalancedness often emerges at the end of multivariate samples, which is sometimes referred to as the `ragged edge' of the data. Using a large monthly dataset of the German economy, we compare the performance of different factor models in the presence of the ragged edge: static and dynamic principal components based on realigned data, the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm and the Kalman smoother in a state-space model context. The monthly factors are used to estimate current quarter GDP, called the `nowcast', using different versions of what we call factor-based mixed-data sampling (Factor-MIDAS) approaches. We compare all possible combinations of factor estimation methods and Factor-MIDAS projections with respect to nowcast performance. Additionally, we compare the performance of the nowcast factor models with the performance of quarterly factor models based on time-aggregated and thus balanced data, which neglect the most timely observations of business cycle indicators at the end of the sample. Our empirical findings show that the factor estimation methods don't differ much with respect to nowcasting accuracy. Concerning the projections, the most parsimonious MIDAS projection performs best overall. Finally, quarterly models are in general outperformed by the nowcast factor models that can exploit ragged-edge data
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Business cycle Large factor models Midas Missing values Mixed-frequency data Nowcasting
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp6718
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535556
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Daniel Cohen,Sébastien Villemot. DP6718 Self-fulfilling and Self-enforcing Debt Crises. 2008.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Daniel Cohen]的文章
[Sébastien Villemot]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Daniel Cohen]的文章
[Sébastien Villemot]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Daniel Cohen]的文章
[Sébastien Villemot]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。