全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP6746 Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP6746
	DP6746 Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth
	Lucrezia Reichlin; Gonzalo Camba-Mendez; Elena Angelini; Gerhard Rünstler; Domenico Giannone
发表日期	2008-03-31
出版年	2008
语种	英语
摘要	Monetary policy analysts often rely on rules-of-thumb, such as the Taylor rule, to describe historical monetary policy decisions and to compare current policy to historical norms. Analysis along these lines also permits evaluation of episodes where policy may have deviated from a simple rule and examination of the reasons behind such deviations. One interesting question is whether such rules-of-thumb should draw on policymakers' forecasts of key variables such as inflation and unemployment or on observed outcomes. Importantly, deviations of the policy from the prescriptions of a Taylor rule that relies on outcomes may be due to systematic responses to information captured in policymakers' own projections. We investigate this proposition in the context of FOMC policy decisions over the past 20 years using publicly available FOMC projections from the biannual monetary policy reports to the Congress (Humphrey-Hawkins reports). Our results indicate that FOMC decisions can indeed be predominantly explained in terms of the FOMC's own projections rather than observed outcomes. Thus, a forecast-based rule-of-thumb better characterizes FOMC decision-making. We also confirm that many of the apparent deviations of the federal funds rate from an outcome-based Taylor-style rule may be considered systematic responses to information contained in FOMC projections.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Fomc forecasts monetary policy Policy rules
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp6746
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535596
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lucrezia Reichlin,Gonzalo Camba-Mendez,Elena Angelini,et al. DP6746 Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth. 2008.