全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP6758 Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data.

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP6758
	DP6758 Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data.
	Andrew Hughes Hallett; Kerstin Bernoth; John Lewis
发表日期	2008-03-31
出版年	2008
语种	英语
摘要	This paper introduces adaptive learning and endogenous indexation in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and studies disinflation under inflation targeting policies. The analysis is motivated by the disinflation performance of many inflation-targeting countries, in particular the gradual Chilean disinflation with temporary annual targets. At the start of the disinflation episode price-setting firms' expect inflation to be highly persistent and opt for backward-looking indexation. As the central bank acts to bring inflation under control, price-setting firms revise their estimates of the degree of persistence. Such adaptive learning lowers the cost of disinflation. This reduction can be exploited by a gradual approach to disinflation. Firms that choose the rate for indexation also re-assess the likelihood that announced inflation targets determine steady-state inflation and adjust indexation of contracts accordingly. A strategy of announcing and pursuing short-term targets for inflation is found to influence the likelihood that firms switch from backward-looking indexation to the central bank's targets. As firms abandon backward-looking indexation the costs of disinflation decline further. We show that an inflation targeting strategy that employs temporary targets can benefit from lower disinflation costs due to the reduction in backward-looking indexation.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Disinflation Indexation Inflation targeting Learning monetary policy New-keynesian model Recursive least squares
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp6758
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535597
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andrew Hughes Hallett,Kerstin Bernoth,John Lewis. DP6758 Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data.. 2008.