| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6792 |
| DP6792 Israel 1983: A Bout of Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic | |
| Thomas Sargent; Joseph Zeira | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-04-23 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin and Small, 2005. The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more accurate estimates than traditional bridge equations. We also show that survey data and other `soft' information are valuable for now-casting. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Forecasting monetary policy Factor model Real time data Large data-sets News |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6792 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535640 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thomas Sargent,Joseph Zeira. DP6792 Israel 1983: A Bout of Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic. 2008. |
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