G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP6792
DP6792 Israel 1983: A Bout of Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic
Thomas Sargent; Joseph Zeira
发表日期2008-04-23
出版年2008
语种英语
摘要This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin and Small, 2005. The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more accurate estimates than traditional bridge equations. We also show that survey data and other `soft' information are valuable for now-casting.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Forecasting monetary policy Factor model Real time data Large data-sets News
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp6792
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535640
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Thomas Sargent,Joseph Zeira. DP6792 Israel 1983: A Bout of Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic. 2008.
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