| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6830 |
| DP6830 Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Structural VAR Analysis with Sign Restrictions | |
| Francesco Lippi; Andrea Nobili | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-05-18 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The New Keynesian Phillips curve explains inflation dynamics as being driven by current and expected future real marginal costs. In competitive labour markets, the labour share can serve as a proxy for the latter. In this paper, we study the role of real marginal cost components implied by search frictions in the labour market. We construct a measure of real marginal costs by using newly available labour market data on worker finding rates. Over the business cycle, the measure is highly correlated with the labour share. Estimates of the Phillips curve using GMM reveal that the marginal cost measure remains significant, and that inflation dynamics are mainly driven by the forward-looking component. Bayesian estimation of the full New Keynesian model with search frictions helps us disentangle which shocks are driving the economy to generate the observed unit labour cost dynamics. We find that mark-up shocks are the dominant force in labour market fluctuations. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Phillips curve Bayesian estimation Marginal costs Labour market frictions |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6830 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535659 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francesco Lippi,Andrea Nobili. DP6830 Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Structural VAR Analysis with Sign Restrictions. 2008. |
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