| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6837 |
| DP6837 Interviews and Adverse Selection | |
| Joel Shapiro; Jens Josephson | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-05-27 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We consider an economy where the oil price, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to a variety of fundamental shocks. We estimate the effects of different structural shocks using robust sign restrictions suggested by theory using US data for the 1973-2007 period. The estimates show that identifying the shock underlying the oil price change is important to predict the sign and the magnitude of its correlates with the US production. The results offer a natural explanation for the smaller correlation between oil prices and US production in the recent years compared to the seventies. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycle Oil prices Structural var Sign restrictions |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6837 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535674 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joel Shapiro,Jens Josephson. DP6837 Interviews and Adverse Selection. 2008. |
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