| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6934 |
| DP6934 Household External Finance and Consumption | |
| Tim Besley; Paolo Surico; Neil Meads | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-08-15 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | There is an important distinction between the price of gasoline in the U.S. and the price of crude oil in global markets that is often ignored in discussions of the impact of higher energy prices. This paper makes explicit the relationship between demand and supply shocks in these two markets. Building on a recently proposed structural VAR model of the global crude oil market, it explores the implications of a joint VAR model of the global market for crude oil and the U.S. market for motor gasoline. It is shown that it is essential to understand the origins of a given gasoline price shock, before predicting the likely path of the price of gasoline or of gasoline consumption, since each demand and supply shock is associated with responses of different magnitude, pattern and persistence. The paper assesses the overall importance of these shocks in explaining the variation in U.S. gasoline prices and consumption growth, as well as their relative contribution to the surge in U.S. gasoline prices since 2002. The findings have important implications for the future evolution of the real price of gasoline. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the determinants of the price of gasoline, this paper makes the case that the real price of gasoline is likely to remain high for several years. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Demand shock Dynamic effects Gasoline consumption Gasoline price Price of crude oil Refiners Supply shock |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6934 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535769 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tim Besley,Paolo Surico,Neil Meads. DP6934 Household External Finance and Consumption. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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