全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP7008 Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP7008
	DP7008 Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR
	Massimiliano Marcellino; George Kapetanios; Andrea Carriero
发表日期	2008-10-17
出版年	2008
语种	英语
摘要	This paper investigates the effects of financial development and political instability on economic growth in a power-ARCH framework with data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. Our findings suggest that (i) informal or unanticipated political instability (e.g., guerrilla warfare) has a direct negative impact on growth; (ii) formal or anticipated instability (e.g., cabinet changes) has an indirect (through volatility) impact on growth; (iii) the effect of financial development is positive and, surprisingly, not via volatility; (iv) the informal instability effects are much larger in the short- than in the long-run; and (v) the impact of financial development on economic growth is negative in the short- but positive in the long-run.
主题	Public Economics
关键词	Economic growth Financial development Political instability Power-arch Volatility
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp7008
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535825
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Massimiliano Marcellino,George Kapetanios,Andrea Carriero. DP7008 Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR. 2008.