| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6980 |
| DP6980 Poverty and Civil War: Revisiting the evidence | |
| Simeon Djankov; Marta Reynal-Querol | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-10-23 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | South Africa in the 1990s became globally more integrated after years of isolation. Opening the trade and capital accounts gave impetus to a monetary policy regime change to inflation targeting from 2000, after a costly transitional period of monetary mismanagement with low policy transparency. Changes in openness can, however, disrupt the inflation forecasting on which targeting monetary policies depend. This chapter demonstrates how the central bank?s own producer price inflation equation in its core model can be improved by taking account of greater openness, using both innovative time-series openness measures and a more conventional measure. The model has a greatly improved fit and stability over longer samples when also including the real exchange rate and the interest rate differential (making explicit the exchange rate channel of monetary transmission) and asymmetric food price inflation. Moreover, there is a role for the level of the output gap rather than simply a short-run effect, as in the central bank?s model. This helps mitigate the arguments in current South African debate regarding the apparent unconcern of inflation targeting policy for the level of economic activity. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Inflation dynamics Modelling producer prices Trade openness |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6980 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535835 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Simeon Djankov,Marta Reynal-Querol. DP6980 Poverty and Civil War: Revisiting the evidence. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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