| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP7030 |
| DP7030 Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability | |
| Charles Manski; Saul Lach; Asher Blass | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-11-03 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of parameters in the model's most important equations are drawn randomly from pre-specified distributions, and present results in the forms of fan charts and histograms. Our results suggest that under a Business-As-Usual scenario, the median increase of global mean temperature in 2105 relative to 1900 will be around 4.5 °C. The 99 percent confidence interval ranges from 3.0 °C to 6.9 °C. Uncertainty about socio-economic drivers of climate change lie behind a non-trivial part of this uncertainty about global warming. |
| 主题 | Development Economics ; International Macroeconomics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Climate-economy models Global warming Monte carlo study |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7030 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535867 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Charles Manski,Saul Lach,Asher Blass. DP7030 Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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