| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP7197 |
| DP7197 Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP | |
| Christian Schumacher; Massimiliano Marcellino; Vladimir Kuzin | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-03-01 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can underestimate the speed at which interest rates should fall, damaging growth. Our forecasting models for the new measure of producer price inflation suggest methodological lessons, and build in conflicting pressures on SA inflation from exchange rate depreciation, terms of trade shocks, collapsing oil, food and other commodity prices, and other shocks. Our US and SA forecasting models for consumer price inflation underline the methodological points, and suggest the usefulness of thinking about sectoral trends. Finally, we apply the sectoral approach to understanding the monetary policy implications of introducing a new CPI measure in SA that uses imputed rents rather than interest rates to capture housing costs. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Forecasting inflation South africa Ppi inflation Homeowner costs in the cpi |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7197 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536034 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christian Schumacher,Massimiliano Marcellino,Vladimir Kuzin. DP7197 Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
