G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP7197
DP7197 Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP
Christian Schumacher; Massimiliano Marcellino; Vladimir Kuzin
发表日期2009-03-01
出版年2009
语种英语
摘要Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can underestimate the speed at which interest rates should fall, damaging growth. Our forecasting models for the new measure of producer price inflation suggest methodological lessons, and build in conflicting pressures on SA inflation from exchange rate depreciation, terms of trade shocks, collapsing oil, food and other commodity prices, and other shocks. Our US and SA forecasting models for consumer price inflation underline the methodological points, and suggest the usefulness of thinking about sectoral trends. Finally, we apply the sectoral approach to understanding the monetary policy implications of introducing a new CPI measure in SA that uses imputed rents rather than interest rates to capture housing costs.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Forecasting inflation South africa Ppi inflation Homeowner costs in the cpi
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp7197
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536034
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Christian Schumacher,Massimiliano Marcellino,Vladimir Kuzin. DP7197 Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP. 2009.
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