| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP7284 |
| DP7284 Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks | |
| Lutz Kilian; Robert J. Vigfusson | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-04-26 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates surged ahead of Chinese ones. Productivity growth can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the long-run Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel?s Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change. Wars contributed importantly to the rise of Europe, even if they had negative short-run effects. We also examine intra-European growth, using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700. Estimation results suggest that war frequency can explain a good share of divergent fortunes within Europe as well. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Malthus to solow Long-run growth Great divergence Epidemics Demographic regime |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7284 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536121 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz Kilian,Robert J. Vigfusson. DP7284 Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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