| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP7294 |
| DP7294 Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new data base | |
| John Taylor; Volker Wieland | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-05-03 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper documents the role of consumption in explaining the weak interest rate effect of monetary transmission in Japan. Economic theory suggests circumstances in which a rise in short term real interest rates can increase consumption, contrary to much conventional wisdom. This paper suggests that these circumstances are more likely to be prevalent in Japan and finds strong empirical evidence for a positive effect. Life-cycle theory also suggests that housing wealth effects on aggregate consumption including imputed rent are small and negative. Positive effects of the kind found in the UK and the US are due to the role of the credit channel. In countries where consumer access to credit is restricted, these restrictions can enhance the negative effect on consumption of higher house prices because saving for a housing deposit needs to be higher. Our evidence of a negative land price effect for Japan supports this hypothesis. We find no evidence of significant household credit market liberalization from a model for household debt in Japan. We also find evidence for a sizable negative effect on consumption from higher government deficits, suggesting fiscal policy also had limitations. These findings contribute to explanations of Japan's 'lost decade'. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Interest rate effect on consumption Japan's lost decade Land prices and consumption Monetary transmission in japan |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7294 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536131 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | John Taylor,Volker Wieland. DP7294 Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new data base. 2009. |
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