G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP7294
DP7294 Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new data base
John Taylor; Volker Wieland
发表日期2009-05-03
出版年2009
语种英语
摘要This paper documents the role of consumption in explaining the weak interest rate effect of monetary transmission in Japan. Economic theory suggests circumstances in which a rise in short term real interest rates can increase consumption, contrary to much conventional wisdom. This paper suggests that these circumstances are more likely to be prevalent in Japan and finds strong empirical evidence for a positive effect. Life-cycle theory also suggests that housing wealth effects on aggregate consumption including imputed rent are small and negative. Positive effects of the kind found in the UK and the US are due to the role of the credit channel. In countries where consumer access to credit is restricted, these restrictions can enhance the negative effect on consumption of higher house prices because saving for a housing deposit needs to be higher. Our evidence of a negative land price effect for Japan supports this hypothesis. We find no evidence of significant household credit market liberalization from a model for household debt in Japan. We also find evidence for a sizable negative effect on consumption from higher government deficits, suggesting fiscal policy also had limitations. These findings contribute to explanations of Japan's 'lost decade'.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Interest rate effect on consumption Japan's lost decade Land prices and consumption Monetary transmission in japan
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp7294
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536131
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
John Taylor,Volker Wieland. DP7294 Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new data base. 2009.
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