| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP7393 |
| DP7393 Financial liberalization and democracy: The role of reform reversals | |
| Fabrizio Coricelli; Nauro Campos | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-08-02 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in the euro area, namely the peaks and troughs of the growth rate which delimitate the slowdown and acceleration phases of the economy. Our aim is twofold: First, we put forward a reference turning point chronology of this cycle on a monthly basis, based on gross domestic product and industrial production index. We consider both euro area aggregate level and country specific cycles for the six main countries of the zone. Second, we come up with a new turning point indicator, based on business surveys carefully watched by central banks and short-term analysts, in order to follow in real-time the fluctuations of the acceleration cycle. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Acceleration cycle Euro area Dating chronology Turning point indicator Business surveys |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7393 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536230 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fabrizio Coricelli,Nauro Campos. DP7393 Financial liberalization and democracy: The role of reform reversals. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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