| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP7462 |
| DP7462 The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US cities | |
| Gilles Gilles Duranton; Matthew Turner | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-09-20 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A canonical model is described which reflects the real-time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ?conventional? models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not available at the time. It is argued that conventional models are misspecified and misinterpret news but that these deficiencies will not be exposed either by diagnostic tests applied to the conventional models or by typical impulse response analyses. This is demonstrated through an analysis of quarterly US data 1968q4-2008q4. However, estimated real-time models considerably improve out-ofsample forecasting performance, provide more accurate ?nowcasts? of the current state of the macroeconomy and provide more timely indicators of the business cycle. The point is illustrated through an analysis of the US recessions of 1990q3-1991q2 and 2001q1-2001q4 and the most recent experiences of 2008. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Structural modelling Real-time data Nowcasting Business cycles |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7462 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536282 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gilles Gilles Duranton,Matthew Turner. DP7462 The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US cities. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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