全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP7445 MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP7445
	DP7445 MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area
	Christian Schumacher; Massimiliano Marcellino; Vladimir Kuzin
发表日期	2009-09-23
出版年	2009
语种	英语
摘要	A vast literature has investigated the relationship between trust and aggregate economic performance. We investigate the relationship between individual trust and individual economic performance. We find that individual income is hump-shaped in a measure of intensity of trust beliefs available in the European Social Survey. We show that heterogeneity of trust beliefs in the population, coupled with the tendency of individuals to extrapolate beliefs about others from their own level of trustworthiness, could generate the non-monotonic relationship between trust and income. Highly trustworthy individuals think others are like them and tend to form beliefs that are too optimistic, causing them to assume too much social risk, to be cheated more often and ultimately perform less well than those who happen to have a trustworthiness level close to the mean of the population. On the other hand, the low-trustworthiness types form beliefs that are too conservative and thereby avoid being cheated, but give up profitable opportunities too often and, consequently, underperform. Our estimates imply that the cost of either excessive or too little trust is comparable to the income lost by foregoing college. Furthermore, we find that people who trust more are cheated more often by banks as well as when purchasing goods second hand, when relying on the services of a plumber or a mechanic and when buying food. We complement the survey evidence with experimental evidence showing that own trustworthiness and expectations of others' trustworthiness in a trust game are strongly correlated and that performance in the game is hump-shaped.
主题	Financial Economics
关键词	Culture Economic performance False consensus Trust Trustworthiness
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp7445
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536296
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Christian Schumacher,Massimiliano Marcellino,Vladimir Kuzin. DP7445 MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area. 2009.