全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP7455 Offshoring, Firm Performance and Establishment-Level Employment: Identifying Productivity and Downsizing Effects

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP7455
	DP7455 Offshoring, Firm Performance and Establishment-Level Employment: Identifying Productivity and Downsizing Effects
	Dieter M Urban; Beatrice Weder di Mauro; Christoph Moser
发表日期	2009-09-23
出版年	2009
语种	英语
摘要	Sign restrictions on the responses generated by structural vector autoregressive models have been proposed as an alternative approach to the use of exclusion restrictions on the impact multiplier matrix. In recent years such models have been increasingly used to identify demand and supply shocks in the market for crude oil. We demonstrate that sign restrictions alone are insufficient to infer the responses of the real price of oil to such shocks. Moreover, the conventional assumption that all admissible models are equally likely is routinely violated in oil market models, calling into question the use of median responses to characterize the responses to structural shocks. When combining sign restrictions with additional empirically plausible bounds on the magnitude of the short-run oil supply elasticity and on the impact response of real activity, however, it is possible to reduce the set of admissible model solutions to a small number of qualitatively similar estimates. The resulting model estimates are broadly consistent with earlier results regarding the relative importance of demand and supply shocks for the real price of oil based on structural VAR models identified by exclusion restrictions, but imply very different dynamics from the median responses in VAR models based on sign restrictions only.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Demand shocks Identification Median response Oil market Sign restriction Supply shocks Vector autoregression
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp7455
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536306
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dieter M Urban,Beatrice Weder di Mauro,Christoph Moser. DP7455 Offshoring, Firm Performance and Establishment-Level Employment: Identifying Productivity and Downsizing Effects. 2009.