| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP7496 |
| DP7496 Village Economies and the Structure of Extended Family Networks | |
| Manuela Angelucci; Imran Rasul; Giacomo DE GIORGI; Marcos A. Rangel | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-10-18 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Several papers that make forecasts about the long-term impact of the current financial crisis rely on models in which there is only one type of financial crisis. These models tend to predict that the current crisis will have long lasting negative effects on economic growth. This paper points out the deficiency in this approach by analyzing the ability of "one-type-shock" models to correctly forecast the recovery from past economic downturns. It is shown that these models often overestimate the long-run impact of recessions and that slightly richer models that allow the effects of recessions to be both persistent and transitory predict recoveries much better. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Financial crisis Forecasting Great recession Unit root |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7496 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536332 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Manuela Angelucci,Imran Rasul,Giacomo DE GIORGI,et al. DP7496 Village Economies and the Structure of Extended Family Networks. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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