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来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP7498 |
DP7498 Internal Rationality and Asset Prices | |
Albert Marcet; Klaus Adam | |
发表日期 | 2009-10-18 |
出版年 | 2009 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We defend the forecasting performance of the FOMC from the recent criticism of Christina and David Romer. Our argument is that the FOMC forecasts a worst-case scenario that it uses to design decisions that will work well enough (are robust) despite possible misspecification of its model. Because these FOMC forecasts are not predictions of what the FOMC expects to occur under its model, it is inappropriate to compare their performance in a horse race against other forecasts. Our interpretation of the FOMC as a robust policymaker can explain all the findings of the Romers and rationalises differences between FOMC forecasts and forecasts published in the Greenbook by the staff of the Federal Reserve System. |
主题 | International Macroeconomics |
关键词 | Forecasting Robustness monetary policy |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7498 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536334 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Albert Marcet,Klaus Adam. DP7498 Internal Rationality and Asset Prices. 2009. |
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