G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP7528
DP7528 Paulson's Gift
Luigi Zingales; Pietro Veronesi
发表日期2009-11-01
出版年2009
语种英语
摘要In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank's preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词European central bank monetary policy Money New-keynesian model Policy under uncertainty Quantity theory
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp7528
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536364
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Luigi Zingales,Pietro Veronesi. DP7528 Paulson's Gift. 2009.
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