| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP7661 |
| DP7661 Growth in a Time of Debt | |
| Kenneth Rogoff; Carmen Reinhart | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-01-24 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private) - which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high.) The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | External debt Government debt Growth History inflation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7661 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536498 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kenneth Rogoff,Carmen Reinhart. DP7661 Growth in a Time of Debt. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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