| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP7689
|
| DP7689 Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments |
| Paolo Pesenti; Jan J. J. Groen
|
| 发表日期 | 2010-02-14
|
| 出版年 | 2010
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent literature. In addition, we consider different types of factor-augmented models that use information from a large data set containing a variety of indicators of supply and demand conditions across major developed and developing countries. These factor-augmented models use either standard principal components or partial least squares (PLS) regression to extract dynamic factors from the data set. Our forecasting analysis considers ten alternative indices and sub-indices of spot prices for three different commodity classes across different periods. We find that the exchange rate-based model and especially the PLS factor-augmented model are more prone to outperform the naive statistical benchmarks. However, across our range of commodity price indices we are not able to generate out-of-sample forecasts that, on average, are systematically more accurate than predictions based on a random walk or autoregressive specifications. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
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| 关键词 | Commodity prices
Exchange rates
Factor models
Forecasting
Pls regression
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7689
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536526
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Paolo Pesenti,Jan J. J. Groen. DP7689 Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments. 2010.
|
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