| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP7769 |
| DP7769 Reconciling VAR-based and Narrative Measures of the Tax-Multiplier | |
| Francesco Giavazzi; Carlo A. Favero | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-03-28 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The currently available empirical evidence shows remarkable differences between various estimates of the effects on U.S. output of an exogenous shift in Federal tax liabilities. Shocks identified via the narrative method imply a multiplier of about three over an horizon of three years. Tax shocks identified in fiscal VAR models deliver a much smaller multiplier of about one. Is this heterogeneity real, or is it simply the result of different approaches to the identification of exogenous shifts in taxes? Or of different specifications of the empirical model used to estimate the tax multiplier? In this paper we reconcile this apparently contradictory evidence by showing that the large multiplier obtained via the narrative identification methods is generated by the choice of a limited information approach in their estimation and not by the different nature of the shocks. Using the shocks identified by a Narrative methods in a multivariate dynamic model delivers estimates of the tax multiplier very much in line with those obtained in the traditional fiscal VAR approach. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Fiscal policy Public debt Government budget constraint Var models |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7769 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536606 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francesco Giavazzi,Carlo A. Favero. DP7769 Reconciling VAR-based and Narrative Measures of the Tax-Multiplier. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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