全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP7956 Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP7956
	DP7956 Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?
	Giordano Mion; Kristian Behrens; Gregory Corcos
发表日期	2010-08-01
出版年	2010
语种	英语
摘要	We provide an analysis of the 2008-2009 trade collapse using microdata from a small open economy, Belgium. First, we find that changes in firm-country-product exports and imports occurred mostly at the intensive margin: the number of firms, the average number of destination and origin markets per firm, and the average number of products per market changed only very little. Second, econometric analysis reveals some composition effects in the intensive margin fall along firm, product and country characteristics. The most important factor explaining changes in exports is the destination country's growth rate of GDP. Had growth rates in 2008--2009 been the same as in 2007--2008, Belgian exports would have fallen by about 57% less than what we observe. Trade in consumer durables and capital goods fell more severely than trade in other product categories, which explains another 22% of the observed fall. Financial variables and involvement in global value chains have some explanatory power on the exports and imports fall respectively, but appear to have affected domestic operations in equal proportion. More generally, exports-to-turnover and imports-to-intermediates ratios at the firm level did neither systematically decrease nor reveal strong firm- or sector-specific patterns. Overall, our results point to a demand-side explanation: the fall in trade was mostly driven by the fall in economic activity. It is not a trade crisis --- just a trade collapse
主题	International Trade and Regional Economics
关键词	Belgium Firm-level analysis Margins of trade Trade collapse Trade crisis
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp7956
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536791
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Giordano Mion,Kristian Behrens,Gregory Corcos. DP7956 Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?. 2010.