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来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP7973 |
DP7973 The First Global Recession in Decades | |
Jean Imbs | |
发表日期 | 2010-09-01 |
出版年 | 2010 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | I use monthly data on industrial production to estimate the distribution of international business cycle correlations since the 1980's, with focus on the current turmoil. The degree of international correlation in national business cycles since the end of 2008 is unprecedented in three decades. From 2008M12, an upward shift in the cross-sectional distribution of cycles synchronization is sizeable and significant, especially between advanced economies. The magnitude of the shift is unprecedented in recent history, even relative to what happened since 1973 after alternative shocks with worldwide consequences. The shift does not arise because volatilities changed with the crisis. Both goods and assets trade have contributed to this synchronization. The (large and significant) synchronization amongst OECD economies is associated with financial openness. The (weaker) diffusion amongst developing economies tends to happen between trade partners. |
主题 | International Macroeconomics |
关键词 | Financial linkages International business cycle Sub-prime crisis Trade linkages |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp7973 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536810 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jean Imbs. DP7973 The First Global Recession in Decades. 2010. |
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