| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8027 |
| DP8027 Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful? | |
| Jordi Gali | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-09-23 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Central banks' projections--i.e. forecasts conditional on a given interest rate path-- are often criticized on the grounds that their underlying policy assumptions are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in many forward-looking models. Here I describe three alternative approaches to constructing projections that are not subject to the above criticism, using two different versions of New Keynesian model as reference frameworks. Most importantly, I show how the three approaches generate different projections for inflation and output, even though they imply an identical path for the interest rate. The latter result calls into question the meaning and usefulness of such projections. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Conditinal forecats Constant interest rate projections Inflation targeting Interest rate path Interest rate rules Multiple equilibria |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8027 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/536864 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jordi Gali. DP8027 Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?. 2010. |
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