| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8252 |
| DP8252 The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, But Not Small Either | |
| Roberto Perotti | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-02-14 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In a seminal contribution, Romer and Romer (2010) introduce a new dataset of exogenous tax changes and estimate a tax multiplier at 3 years of about -3. These results have been criticized as implausibly large. In this paper, I argue that on theoretical grounds the discretionary component of taxation should be allowed to have different effects on output than the automatic response of tax revenues to macroeconomic variables. Existing approaches, that do not allow for this difference, exhibit impulse responses that are biased towards 0. I then show that allowing for this difference leads to tax multipliers that are about half-way between the large effects estimated by Romer and Romer and the much smaller effects estimated by Favero and Giavazzi (2010): typically, a one percentage point of GDP increase in taxes leads to a decline in GDP by about 1.5 percentage points after 3 years. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Tax shocks Tax multiplier Taxation Fiscal policy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8252 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537089 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Roberto Perotti. DP8252 The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, But Not Small Either. 2011. |
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