| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8292 |
| DP8292 A Century of Inflation Forecasts | |
| Paolo Surico | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-03-21 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the XXth century. The forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation. These include the years from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to the implementation of the Bretton Woods Agreements in 1951, and from Nixon's closure of the gold window in 1971 to the end of Volcker?s disinflation in 1983. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Monetary regimes Phillips curve Predictability Time-varying models |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8292 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537135 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Paolo Surico. DP8292 A Century of Inflation Forecasts. 2011. |
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