G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP8292
DP8292 A Century of Inflation Forecasts
Paolo Surico
发表日期2011-03-21
出版年2011
语种英语
摘要We investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the XXth century. The forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation. These include the years from the outbreak of World War II in 1939 to the implementation of the Bretton Woods Agreements in 1951, and from Nixon's closure of the gold window in 1971 to the end of Volcker?s disinflation in 1983.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Monetary regimes Phillips curve Predictability Time-varying models
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp8292
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537135
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Paolo Surico. DP8292 A Century of Inflation Forecasts. 2011.
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