全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP8305 Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP8305
	DP8305 Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment
	Giancarlo Corsetti; Saverio Simonelli; Antonio Acconcia
发表日期	2011-04-01
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	We estimate the multiplier relying on differences in spending in infrastructure across Italian provinces and an instrument identifying investment changes that are large and exogenous to local cyclical conditions. We derive our instrument from the Law mandating the interruption of public work on evidence of mafia infiltration of city councils. Our IV estimates on cross sectional data allow us to address common problems in time series analysis, such as the risk of estimating spuriously high multipliers because of endogeneity and reverse causation, or the risk of confounding the effects of fiscal and monetary measures. Accounting for contemporaneous and lagged effects, and controlling for the direct impact of anti-mafia measures on output, our results suggest a multiplier as high as 1.4 on impact, and 2 including dynamic effects.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Government spending Multiplier Instrumental variables
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp8305
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537142
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Giancarlo Corsetti,Saverio Simonelli,Antonio Acconcia. DP8305 Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment. 2011.