| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8314 |
| DP8314 Predicting Lotto Numbers | |
| Jean-Robert Tyran; Sigrid Suetens | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-04-01 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the "gambler?s fallacy," and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the "hot hand fallacy." |
| 主题 | Financial Economics |
| 关键词 | Gambler's fallacy Hot hand fallacy Law of small numbers Representativeness |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8314 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537151 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jean-Robert Tyran,Sigrid Suetens. DP8314 Predicting Lotto Numbers. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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