| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8340 |
| DP8340 Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance | |
| Seppo Honkapohja; George W. Evans | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-04-01 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for RE equilibria and a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria. Further features of learning, such as discounting of older data, use of misspecified models, or heterogeneous choice by agents between competing models, generate novel learning dynamics. Empirical applications are reviewed and the roles of the planning horizon and structural knowledge are discussed. We develop several applications of learning to macroeconomic policy: the scope of Ricardian equivalence, appropriate specification of interest-rate rules, implementation of price-level targeting to achieve learning-stability of the optimal RE equilibrium and whether under learning price-level targeting can rule out the deflation trap at the zero-lower-bound. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Asset prices Business cycles Cognitive consistency E-stability Least-squares monetary policy Persistent learning dynamics |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8340 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537167 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Seppo Honkapohja,George W. Evans. DP8340 Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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