| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8351 |
| DP8351 How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies | |
| Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz; Erik Snowberg | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-04-01 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions from the economic effects of party control of government to the importance of complex rules in congressional committees. However, the results of event studies are notoriously sensitive to both choices made by researchers and external events. Specifically, event studies will generally produce different results depending on three interrelated things: which event window is chosen, the prior probability assigned to an event at the beginning of the event window, and the presence or absence of other events during the event window. In this paper we show how each of these may bias the results of event studies, and how prediction markets can mitigate these biases. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Prediction markets Event studies Political economy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8351 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537178 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Justin Wolfers,Eric Zitzewitz,Erik Snowberg. DP8351 How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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