| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8352 |
| DP8352 War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict | |
| Fabrizio Zilibotti; Dominic Rohner | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-04-01 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects. |
| 主题 | Development Economics ; International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | beliefs Civil war Conflict Cultural transmission Ethnic fractionalization Peacekeeping Strategic complementarity Trade |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8352 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537179 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fabrizio Zilibotti,Dominic Rohner. DP8352 War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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