| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8388 |
| DP8388 Forecasting the Price of Oil | |
| Lutz Kilian; Ron Alquist; Robert J. Vigfusson | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-05-31 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated with oil price forecasts? Can joint forecasts of the price of oil and of U.S. real GDP growth be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries? |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Asymmetries Demand and supply Forecasting Oil price Predictability |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8388 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537236 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz Kilian,Ron Alquist,Robert J. Vigfusson. DP8388 Forecasting the Price of Oil. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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