全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP8413 From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP8413
	DP8413 From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU
	Roel Beetsma; Massimo Giuliodori; Peter Wierts; Benjamin Bluhm
发表日期	2011-06-01
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and the fiscal surveillance process. Deviations of ex-post from first-release fiscal figures may arise for political and strategic reasons. In particular, Ministries of Finance control the production of first-release figures, and may have an incentive to be over-optimistic at this stage. Our results suggest that an improvement in the quality of institutions, whether measured by the tightness of national fiscal rules, the medium-term budgetary framework or budgetary transparency, reduces the degree of optimism at the first-release stage, thereby making first-release figures more informative about the eventual outcomes. This supports the European Commission proposals for minimum standards for national fiscal frameworks and amendments by the European Parliament for improving national ownership. It also strengthens the case for a close monitoring by the Commission of the first-release production of fiscal figures.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Base effect Biases Decomposition Denominator effect Ex-post data First-release data Fiscal institutions Fiscal policy Growth effect Real-time data
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp8413
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537250
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Roel Beetsma,Massimo Giuliodori,Peter Wierts,et al. DP8413 From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU. 2011.