| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8439 |
| DP8439 Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment | |
| Roger Farmer | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-06-01 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper develops a rational expectations model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates where the price of capital may be unbounded above. I argue that this property is an important feature of any rational-agent explanation of a financial crisis, since for the expansion phase of the crisis to be rational, investors must credibly believe that asset prices could keep increasing forever with positive probability. I explain the sudden crash in asset prices that precipitates a financial crisis as a large negative self-fulfilling shock to the expectation of the future price of capital. This shock causes a permanent reduction in wealth and consumption and a permanent increase in the unemployment rate. My work suggests that economic policies designed to reduce the volatility of asset market movements will significantly increase economic welfare. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Animal spirits Old-keynesian Rational bubbles Unemployment |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8439 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537267 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Roger Farmer. DP8439 Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment. 2011. |
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