全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP8528 Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP8528
	DP8528 Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
	Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez; Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde; Keith Kuester; Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana
发表日期	2011-08-01
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow for time-varying volatility. We then feed these processes into an otherwise standard New Keynesian business cycle model calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find that fiscal volatility shocks have an adverse effect on economic activity that is comparable to the effects of a 25-basis-point innovation in the federal funds rate.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Dsge models Uncertainty Fiscal policy monetary policy
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp8528
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537362
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez,Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde,Keith Kuester,et al. DP8528 Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity. 2011.