| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8550 |
| DP8550 Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls | |
| Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-08-01 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use a historical quasi-experiment to estimate the causal effect of trade on capital flows. We argue that fluctuations in regional rainfall within the Ottoman Empire capture the exogenous variation in exports from the Empire to Germany, France, and the U.K., during 1859-1913. The provisionistic policy of the Ottoman Empire - that is, only a surplus production was allowed to be exported - combined with the fact that different products grow in different regions that are subject to regional variation in rainfall and Germany, France and the U.K. import different products, constitute the basis of our identification. When a given region of the Empire gets more rainfall than others, the resulting surplus production is exported to countries with higher ex-ante export shares for those products and this leads to higher investment by those countries in the Ottoman Empire. Our findings support theories predicting complementarity between trade and capital flows. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Capital flows Exports Default Fdi Empire Rainfalls |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8550 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537383 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy. DP8550 Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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