G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP8550
DP8550 Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy
发表日期2011-08-01
出版年2011
语种英语
摘要We use a historical quasi-experiment to estimate the causal effect of trade on capital flows. We argue that fluctuations in regional rainfall within the Ottoman Empire capture the exogenous variation in exports from the Empire to Germany, France, and the U.K., during 1859-1913. The provisionistic policy of the Ottoman Empire - that is, only a surplus production was allowed to be exported - combined with the fact that different products grow in different regions that are subject to regional variation in rainfall and Germany, France and the U.K. import different products, constitute the basis of our identification. When a given region of the Empire gets more rainfall than others, the resulting surplus production is exported to countries with higher ex-ante export shares for those products and this leads to higher investment by those countries in the Ottoman Empire. Our findings support theories predicting complementarity between trade and capital flows.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Capital flows Exports Default Fdi Empire Rainfalls
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp8550
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537383
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy. DP8550 Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls. 2011.
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