| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8651 |
| DP8651 Sovereign CDS and Bond Pricing Dynamics in the Euro-area | |
| Richard Portes; Giorgia Palladini | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-11-01 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This analysis tests the price discovery relationship between sovereign CDS premia and bond yield spreads on the same reference entity. The theoretical no-arbitrage relationship between the two credit spreads is confronted with daily data from six Euro-area countries over the period 2004-2011. As a first step, the supposed non stationarity of the two series is verified. Then, we examine whether the non-stationary CDS and bond spreads series are bound by a cointegration relationship. Overall the cointegration analysis confirms that the two prices should be equal to each other in equilibrium, as theory predicts. Nonetheless the theoretical value [1, -1] for the cointegrating vector is rejected, meaning that in the short run the cash and synthetic market's valuation of credit risk differ to various degrees. The VECM analysis suggests that the CDS market moves ahead of the bond market in terms of price discovery. These findings are further supported by the Granger Causality Test: for most sovereigns in the sample, past values of CDS spreads help to forecast bond yield spreads. Short-run deviations from the equilibrium persist longer than it would take for participants in one market to observe the price in the other. That is consistent with the hypothesis of imperfections in the arbitrage relationship between the two markets. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Asset pricing Cds Euro area International finance Sovereign bonds |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8651 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537488 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Richard Portes,Giorgia Palladini. DP8651 Sovereign CDS and Bond Pricing Dynamics in the Euro-area. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
