| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| 来源ID | DP8845
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| DP8845 Long-Term Debt Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission under Imperfect Knowledge |
| Marc Giannoni; Stefano Eusepi
|
| 发表日期 | 2012-02-01
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| 出版年 | 2012
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Under rational expectations monetary policy is generally highly effective in stabilizing the economy. Aggregate demand management operates through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure --- anticipated movements in future short-term interest rates control current demand. This paper explores the effects of monetary policy under imperfect knowledge and incomplete markets. In this environment the expectations hypothesis of the yield curve need not hold, a situation called unanchored financial market expectations. Whether or not financial market expectations are anchored, private sector imperfect knowledge mitigates the efficacy of optimal monetary policy. Under anchored expectations, slow adjustment of interest-rate beliefs limits scope to adjust current interest-rate policy in response to evolving macroeconomic conditions. Imperfect knowledge represents an additional distortion confronting policy, leading to greater inflation and output volatility relative to rational expectations. Under unanchored expectations, current interest-rate policy is divorced from interest-rate expectations. This permits aggressive adjustment in current interest-rate policy to stabilize inflation and output. However, unanchored expectations are shown to raise significantly the probability of encountering the zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates. This constraint is more severe the longer is the average maturity structure of the public debt. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
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| 关键词 | Expectations hypothesis of the yield curve
Expectations stabilization
Long debt
Optimal monetary policy
Transmission of monetary policy
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| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8845
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| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537681
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Marc Giannoni,Stefano Eusepi. DP8845 Long-Term Debt Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission under Imperfect Knowledge. 2012.
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