| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8892 |
| DP8892 Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model | |
| Seppo Honkapohja; George W. Evans; Kaushik Mitra | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-03-01 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates. Both permanent and temporary policy changes are analyzed. Dynamics under learning can have large impact effects and a gradual hump-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations reflect periods of excessive optimism or pessimism, followed by subsequent corrections. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Expectations Government spending Permanent and temporary policy change Taxation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8892 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537728 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Seppo Honkapohja,George W. Evans,Kaushik Mitra. DP8892 Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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