| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8916 |
| DP8916 The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far? | |
| Lutz Kilian; Bassam Fattouh; Lavan Mahadeva | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-03-01 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting this view. We identify six strands in the literature corresponding to different empirical methodologies and discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Financialization Fundamentals Futures market Oil price Speculation Spot market |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8916 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537746 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz Kilian,Bassam Fattouh,Lavan Mahadeva. DP8916 The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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