| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8896 |
| DP8896 Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure | |
| Gabriel Pérez-Quirós; Pilar Poncela; Máximo Camacho | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-03-12 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | To perform real-time business cycle inferences and forecasts of GDP growth rates in the Euro area, we use an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the specificities of the day to day monitoring of economic developments such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions. We provide examples that show the nonlinear nature of the relations between data revisions, point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. According to our empirical results, we think that the real-time probabilities of recession inferred from the model are an appropriate statistic to capture what the press call green shoots or to monitor the double-dip recession |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycles Time series Turning points |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8896 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537757 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gabriel Pérez-Quirós,Pilar Poncela,Máximo Camacho. DP8896 Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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