| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP8933 |
| DP8933 Inflation Forecast Contracts | |
| Hans Gersbach; Volker Hahn | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-04-01 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers? remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balance, paying central bankers according to their forecasting performance improves welfare. Optimal inflation forecast contracts stipulate high rewards for accurate forecasts. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Central banks Incentive contracts Inflation forecast targeting Inflation targeting Intermediate targets transparency |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp8933 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537771 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hans Gersbach,Volker Hahn. DP8933 Inflation Forecast Contracts. 2012. |
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