| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9059 |
| DP9059 Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting | |
| Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz; Erik Snowberg | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-07-15 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models. |
| 主题 | Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Forecasting Prediction markets |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9059 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537893 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Justin Wolfers,Eric Zitzewitz,Erik Snowberg. DP9059 Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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