| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9107 |
| DP9107 Complexity and Monetary Policy | |
| Athanasios Orphanides; Volker Wieland | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-08-26 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The complexity resulting from intertwined uncertainties regarding model misspecification and mismeasurement of the state of the economy defines the monetary policy landscape. Using the euro area as laboratory this paper explores the design of robust policy guides aiming to maintain stability in the economy while recognizing this complexity. We document substantial output gap mismeasurement and make use of a new model data base to capture the evolution of model specification. A simple interest rate rule is employed to interpret ECB policy since 1999. An evaluation of alternative policy rules across 11 models of the euro area confirms the fragility of policy analysis optimized for any specific model and shows the merits of model averaging in policy design. Interestingly, a simple difference rule with the same coefficients on inflation and output growth as the one used to interpret ECB policy is quite robust as long as it responds to current outcomes of these variables. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Complexity Ecb Financial crisis Model uncertainty monetary policy Robust simple rules |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9107 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/537940 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Athanasios Orphanides,Volker Wieland. DP9107 Complexity and Monetary Policy. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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