| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP9266 |
| DP9266 How to use demand systems to evaluate risky projects, with an application to automobile production | |
| Richard Friberg | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-12-16 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This article introduces a method to quantify the effect of a firm?s strategic choices on the risk profile of its profits at different horizons. We combine a demand system for differentiated products with counterfactual paths of risk factors. Prices, costs and quantities respond endogenously to the counterfactual state of the world. The draws on risk factors are generated using copulas, in a way that flexibly can be adapted to the risks faced in various industries. We illustrate the method by studying how the US operations of German carmakers BMW and Porsche are affected by the decision to relocate production, i.e. operational hedging. We find that for plausible costs of building a plant, production in the US is attractive for BMW, but not for Porsche. |
| 主题 | Industrial Organization |
| 关键词 | Demand estimation Exchange rate exposure Operational hedging Risk management |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp9266 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/538100 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Richard Friberg. DP9266 How to use demand systems to evaluate risky projects, with an application to automobile production. 2012. |
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